Daily news bulletin covering the foreign exchange market
| 22.02.2012 09:21:42 |
This market comment is published by our Customer Forex Trading Desk and is not the product of our Financial Research department. As such, these recommendations are not subject to the Swiss Bankers Association's Directives on the Independence of Financial Research. |
 Hot News |
| Short-term Technical Analysis |
| Crude Oil and Precious Metals |
| Economic Data |
| Hot News |  |
| Private investors in Greek government bonds are set to take a 73-74% net present value loss on the bond swap deal. Greece will pass legislation to enforce losses on those bondholders who balk at the new terms of the deal. The International Monetary Fund could contribute EUR 23 billion to the second Greek bail-out package. The preliminary HSBC China Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7 in February compared with a final reading of 48.8 in January. S&P yesterday lowered to AA and removed from Credit Watch Negative its 'AAA' long-term credit ratings on Bankia S.A.'s Spanish mortgage-covered bonds, as well as assigning a negative outlook to the covered bonds. | |
| Short-term Technical Analysis |  |
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| Cross | Spot level | Previous day move (in pips) | Supp. | Res. | Daily target |
| USD/CHF | 0.9121 | 0.0019 | 0.9085 | 0.9150 |
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Daily chart
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0.9065 | 0.9185 | |||
| Short-term chart |
0.9010 | 0.9210 | |||
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Comments The December Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index was revised up to 0.54 from initial estimates of 0.17, and January’s figure came out as expected at 0.22. The end of the Greek saga with the agreement on the second bail-out plan didn’t have a significant effect on currency markets, which were waiting for a positive outcome for several sessions. The USD/CHF traded between 0.9086 and 0.9142, in line with the 0.9075-0.9175 range we gave at the start of the week, and we are sticking with the same range for today’s session. |
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| EUR/USD | 1.3240 | -0.0029 | 1.3185 | 1.3250 |
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Daily chart
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1.3170 | 1.3295 | |||
| Short-term chart |
1.3140 | 1.3320 | |||
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Comments With the Greek saga now behind us, it’s time to turn to other issues that will influence exchange rates in the weeks to come. Iran could be an important issue in the weeks ahead. The EUR/USD pair, which could have posted substantial gains after agreement was finally reached on Greece, remained firmly wedged between 1.3200 and 1.3291. Euro-area industrial new orders are due out this morning. For today’s session we are expecting a trading range of 1.3200-1.3300. |
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| USD/JPY | 80.04 | 0.26 | 79.75 | 80.15 |
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Daily chart
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79.55 | 80.40 | |||
| Short-term chart |
79.20 | 80.85 | |||
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Comments The USD/JPY pair reached 80.00 for the first time in six months and has been trading between 79.55 and 80.08. The EUR/JPY cross traded 105.14 and 106.01. The only significant indicator due out today is the figure for sales of existing houses in the US. Our expected trading ranges for today are 79.50-80.25 on the USD/JPY and 105.00-106.50 on the EUR/JPY. |
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| EUR/CHF | 1.2078 | 0.0000 | 1.2065 | 1.2115 |
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Daily chart
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1.2055 | 1.2130 | |||
| Short-term chart |
1.2040 | 1.2150 | |||
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Comments Switzerland posted a trade surplus of CHF 1.55 billion in January. Exports were up by 3.4% and imports rose by 8.2% (the pharmaceutical sector was a major component of both). Swiss watchmaking exports rose by 15.5% in January. The resolution of the Greek problem has done nothing for the EUR/CHF cross, which has traded in a range between 1.2070 and 1.2084. This morning, we are awaiting publication of European manufacturing PMI data. We are sticking with the same trading range we gave yesterday, i.e. 1.2060-1.2100. |
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| GBP/USD | 1.5792 | -0.0055 | 1.5760 | 1.5835 |
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Daily chart
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1.5730 | 1.5870 | |||
| Short-term chart |
1.5690 | 1.5930 | |||
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Comments The minutes of the Bank of England’s most recent Monetary Policy Committee are due to be published this morning and we will find out whether the Committee was unanimously in favour of extending the BoE's quantitative easing programme. The Cable eased slightly from 1.5865 to 1.5765. Meanwhile, the EUR/GBP cross advanced from 0.8380 to 0.8390. The January data on the state of the UK's public finances were better than expected yesterday. Our expected trading range over the next 24 hours is 1.5750-1.5850. |
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| Crude Oil and Precious Metals | |
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| Spot | Pips move | ||
| Crude Oil | 105.50 | 0.68 | Daily chart |
| Platinum | 1698.75 | 43.24 | Daily chart |
| Gold | 1755.69 | 15.05 | Daily chart |
| Silver | 34.22 | 0.41 | Daily chart |
| Economic Data | |
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| GMT Time | Economic data | Country | Period | Forecast | Previous |
| 09:30 | PMI MANUF. | GER | FEB | 51.5 | 51.0 |
| 09:30 | PMI SERVICES | GER | FEB | 53.9 | 53.7 |
| 10:00 | PMI COMPOSITE | EMU | FEB | 50.5 | 50.4 |
| 10:00 | PMI MANUF. | EMU | FEB | 49.4 | 48.8 |
| 10:00 | PMI SERVICES | EMU | FEB | 50.6 | 50.4 |
| 10:30 | BOE MINUTES | UK | |||
| 13:00 | MBA MORTGAGE APP. | USA | FEB17 | -1.0% | |
| 16:00 | EXISTING HOME SALES | USA | JAN | 4.66M | 4.61M |
| 16:00 | EXISTING HOME SALES M/M | USA | JAN | 1.1% | 5.0% |
